Observations · No.02 · 2026
African Union:
Built for a World That
No Longer Exists
Thirty years after “never again,” Africa's conflict deaths have surged to their highest since 1994. The African Union and its security architecture — designed for a vanished unipolar order — are failing their core mandate to prevent and halt atrocity crimes.
Conflict fatalities have surged eightfold
Trend of African conflict fatalities. Source: Pan African Agenda · Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2024
Key Observations
Five structural findings
Global Order · Interregnum
A dangerous interregnum
The post-1945 order is dying and no new one has emerged. Multilateral cooperation now collides with the national-interest politics of a multipolar age.
Prevention & Intervention
Zero effective new missions since 2015
APSA cannot prevent or end the wars in Ethiopia, Sudan and the DRC — and depends on external backing it no longer commands.
State Integrity
500M+ face high-stakes votes, 2026–29
Performative election observations for shame elections, damaged integrity and fractured legitimacy across the Horn, North Africa, the Great Lakes and the Sahel. A widening gap with Gen Z risks unrest at the ballot box.
Mediation · Primacy
Relegated to a PR role
External actors — Türkiye, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the US — fill the vacuum, sidelining the AU and RECs in Ethiopia, Sudan and the DRC.
Forum Shopping
Bilateral deals displace the AU
Belligerents now shop for sympathetic external mediators. Mediation turns transactional, not transformative — short-term deals over durable peace.
By the Numbers · 2022
237,000 killed — the highest toll since 1994. Source: UCDP.
Displacement & Economic Toll
Observations · PAP
A near-threefold rise in a decade
Approx. Sudan alone: 15M+ displaced — nearly one-third of its population. Source: PAAI · IDMC · UNHCR, 2024
Bold Proposals for Action
Four bold proposals
Transform the African Union
Recalibrate APSA's mandate and ambition to what member states will actually fund and staff — and formalise a clear division of labour with the Regional Economic Communities.
Transform the nature of states
Reimagine the state through ‘states with multiple systems’ — layered, hybrid governance and integrative (con)federalism that hold integrity while accommodating diversity.
Ensure the primacy of domestic politics
Resolve differences through domestic and local political processes, not external actors — with Gen Z, Africa's youngest-continent advantage, as the decisive constituency.
Employ a triple geopolitical strategy
Anchor sovereignty in responsibility to people; build agency through dynamic, pragmatic policy for continental collective action, beneficial partnerships and genuine strategic autonomy.
What is to be done: Viewed through an opportunity lens, the global interregnum is also an opening — for Africa to move from dependency to the long-standing quest for self-reliance, anchored in accountability, inclusivity and strategic autonomy. This requires facing realities in Africa and beyond, and implementing the above four bold proposals.
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