On 27 March 2025, the Pan-African Agenda Institute (PAAI) convened a high-level virtual closed session titled “Drums of War in the Horn: Can the Pretoria Agreement Survive?” The session brought together experts, diplomats, and policymakers for a candid and strategic discussion on rapidly evolving political and security developments in the Horn of Africa.
Held against the backdrop of rising tensions within Tigray and growing mobilization between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the discussion examined whether the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, hailed as a breakthrough in ending one of the world’s deadliest recent conflicts, could withstand mounting internal and regional pressures.
The closed format created space for frank exchange and forward-looking analysis. Participants assessed the implications of renewed political fragmentation in Tigray, shifting military dynamics, and escalating rhetoric between Addis Ababa and Asmara. The conversation also explored how broader geopolitical currents in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa region are intersecting with domestic fault lines.
A central focus of the session was identifying actionable policy recommendations to prevent a relapse into large-scale conflict. Contributors underscored the urgency of preventive diplomacy, revitalised regional engagement, and coordinated international support to safeguard the gains made under the Pretoria Agreement.
The dialogue further emphasised that peace in the Horn of Africa remains fragile and deeply interconnected. Developments within Tigray cannot be viewed in isolation from Ethiopia–Eritrea relations or the wider regional security architecture. Participants highlighted the importance of rebuilding trust, addressing unresolved provisions of the Agreement, and strengthening inclusive political processes to prevent renewed violence.
By convening this timely closed session, PAAI reaffirmed its commitment to providing a trusted platform for principled, solution-oriented dialogue at critical inflection points. As warning signs intensify across the region, the conversation underscored a shared recognition: sustained peace will require deliberate political will, strategic coordination, and urgent preventive action.
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