The current international order stands at a crossroads. The world is trapped in a dangerous interregnum between the dying post-World War II international order and one yet to be born.
As Antonio Gramsci observed of a different era facing uncertainty and unpredictability:
“The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.”
According to Africa Futures, four possibilities could arise from today’s increasingly polarised and fragmented global order:
- A Divided World
- The World at War
- A Sustainable World
- A Growth World
The best outcome for Africa would be the Sustainable World scenario. Although the most difficult to achieve, it offers the greatest potential for positive economic growth and distribution, geopolitical stability, collaborative action on climate change and deeper African integration.
It could also foster conditions that support Africa’s efforts to escape permanent deprivation and silence the guns. For Africa, the pursuit of global peace and the prevention of another historic rupture are therefore both moral imperatives and pragmatic strategies for achieving prosperity and stability.
Challenges to the world order
The international order established after World War II and the subsequent Bretton Woods Agreement is being pulled in two main directions.
Those who have benefited from its emphasis on political liberalism, neoliberal capitalism and the post-Cold War neoliberal Pax Americana are now being challenged by emerging powers demanding a radical overhaul.
Evidence of growing polarisation in domestic politics and democratic backsliding is increasingly visible in both emerging and established liberal democracies.
The Human Development Report 2023/2024 attributes much of this gridlock to uneven development and intensifying political polarisation.
Realist theorists argue that competition between established and aspiring powers can easily devolve into a “race to the bottom”. In this environment, the pursuit of influence without regard for long-term consequences creates a dangerous security situation.
Structural shifts and the dispersal of power become intertwined with global and domestic identity politics. This creates uncertainty, distrust and volatility, impedes international cooperation and threatens multilateral institutions.
Great and middle powers today find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the final years of the League of Nations.
Although structural weaknesses contributed to the League’s demise, its collapse can partly be explained as a race to the bottom in which states prioritised short-term national interests over collective security.
The United States’ failure to participate weakened the League, while appeasement policies towards Nazi Germany and fascist Italy further eroded its authority.
By pursuing narrow self-interest, states undermined the institution established to prevent such behaviour, producing a downward spiral of declining cooperation and increasing conflict.
The lessons of the League’s failure remain relevant today. The world faces global challenges requiring collective action, yet the United Nations is increasingly divided by tensions between Western powers and rising states that echo the dynamics that ultimately destroyed the League.
Opportunities and risks
In the present global environment, Africa’s growing geopolitical importance offers significant opportunities for development and international partnerships. However, it also presents serious risks to the continent’s peace, security and development.
Both major and marginal powers are courting the continent, as demonstrated by the growing number of international summits and pledges involving billions of dollars in prospective investment.
More than 12 different Africa-focused summits are now convened by major and middle powers, with recent examples involving China and Indonesia.
At the Beijing Forum on China–Africa Cooperation in September 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged US$50 billion in financial support to Africa over the following three years.
This followed a pledge of US$55 billion over three years to support the African Union’s Agenda 2063, made by former US President Joe Biden at the 2022 US–Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC.
Japan also committed US$30 billion at the 2022 Tokyo International Conference on African Development.
At the Russia–Africa Summit in July 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered free grain to Burkina Faso, Mali, Eritrea, the Central African Republic and Zimbabwe.
Africa has also established dozens of strategic partnerships with major powers and regions, including:
- The European Union
- The United States
- China
- Japan
- South America
- India
- Türkiye
According to the African Union, these partnerships are intended to enhance Africa’s international standing and global leverage.
By prioritising relationships with emerging powers, particularly in the Global South, Africa seeks to strengthen its position on the world stage and maximise its influence in international affairs.
The proliferation and revitalisation of these partnerships reflect Africa’s growing global prominence and its strategic pursuit of continental objectives through multilateral cooperation.
However, geopolitical competition on the continent also creates significant risks.
Extra-African powers may resort to unilateral actions that undermine African states, forcing countries to choose sides and potentially generating proxy conflicts reminiscent of the Cold War.
Interventions by external powers may already have weakened some continental and regional institutions.
The deployment of foreign military forces across Africa serves the complex strategic interests of global powers while raising concerns about:
- Host-state sovereignty
- Neocolonialism
- Risks to domestic institutions
- Competition between rival states
- Competition between commercial interests
One consequence has been the expulsion of foreign troops from Mali, Niger and Chad, as well as Djibouti’s suspension of a United Arab Emirates port-management body.
This trend is also reflected in calls by the United States and countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to withdraw from international institutions, including the International Criminal Court, World Trade Organization and World Health Organization.
Similar pressures are affecting regional institutions such as the Economic Community of West African States.
A growing disconnect between democracy and economic delivery has created fertile ground for populist, authoritarian, military and civilian leaders.
The wave of coups across the Sahel has produced an alliance of coup-led governments that could be described as a “Sahel coup bloc”.
The decision by Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to establish the Confederation of Sahel States poses a direct challenge to the institutional architecture of both the African Union and ECOWAS.
The African Union’s inability to prevent wars in member states such as Ethiopia, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, or to resolve tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, raises the troubling question of whether the organisation remains fit for purpose.
The current interregnum therefore presents both serious challenges and potentially significant opportunities for Africa’s long-term interests.
Strengthening Africa’s position
The growing division in the world, combined with the international system’s failure to address emerging global challenges, makes the reform of international governance institutions increasingly urgent.
Key priorities include:
- Overhauling the United Nations system, particularly the UN Security Council
- Reforming the global financial architecture
- Prioritising rules-based multilateralism
- Improving relations between the West and the rest of the world, particularly China
As the global status quo continues to evolve, Africa has a unique opportunity to help shape the future international order.
This opportunity is based on several factors, including the continent’s demographic growth, critical mineral resources and increasing importance in diplomatic and geopolitical alliances.
Africa must strengthen its vision and improve the coordination of its geopolitical repositioning.
This includes diversifying partnerships without alienating traditional Western allies, actively advocating for more equitable representation in international institutions such as the UN Security Council and the G20, and enhancing the African Union’s role in global affairs.
For this advocacy to produce meaningful results, Africa must strengthen its agency.
The continent’s future position in global affairs will depend on its ability to act cohesively, adapt to changing circumstances and consistently advocate for its interests and values.
Africa’s potential continental power is frequently weakened by its failure to act from a common position and by the difficulty of balancing national and continental interests.
The declining commitment to multilateralism, including among some of its traditional defenders, is particularly concerning for Africa.
Historically, multilateral frameworks have allowed the continent to amplify its voice and protect its interests. The weakening of these institutions may leave Africa even more vulnerable to the decisions and actions of external powers.
The African Union can deploy a range of Common African Positions demonstrating consensus on major global issues.
Examples include the Ezulwini Consensus and the Sirte Declaration, which outline Africa’s position on UN Security Council reform by demanding:
- Permanent African representation with veto rights
- Additional non-permanent African seats
- African Union-led selection of African representatives
These positions demonstrate Africa’s commitment to multilateralism while seeking to address historical injustices and secure more equitable representation in global governance structures.
Pragmatism, dynamism and a collective voice
To ensure that Africa’s concerns are taken seriously, the continent’s geopolitical strategy must centre on three core principles:
- Pragmatism
- Dynamism
- A single collective voice
When faced with pressure to align with specific global powers, the African Union and its member states should adopt a pragmatic approach focused on improving human conditions across the continent.
They must also remain prepared to make swift policy adjustments when circumstances demand them.
To strengthen Africa’s agency and insulate pan-African decision-making from external interference and dependence on non-African donors, African Union member states must act collectively when engaging extra-continental powers.
Conclusion
Every problem presents an opportunity.
By strengthening Africa’s agency through collective action, the continent can advance its interests, forge beneficial international partnerships and take its proper place in building a more inclusive and stable world order.
Image: Johnson Matandi / Wikimedia Commons
