A review of the African Union’s performance is sounding a warning for Kenya ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The review, headlined Is Africa’s premier continental organization, the African Union, fit for purpose?, was launched on Tuesday.
It warns that countries once considered relatively stable are now vulnerable to the same governance stresses that have tipped others into crisis.
“These state fragilities may be exacerbated by upcoming elections in several large African countries, including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, in 2026–2029, affecting more than half a billion people,” the report by Pan African Agenda says.
The review notes that the widening gap between political elites and a restless young population is worsening the situation.
“Depending on the perceptions of the electorate, particularly Gen Z, these elections carry enormous risks, potentially leading to either democratic transitions or increased violence,” it adds.
Given the fragmentation of state legitimacy and integrity, the consequent diminished capacity to manage power, identity, and resource politics will remain the most significant threat to peace, security, and human development, it says.
According to the study, the widening gap between political establishments and the Gen-Z population, unless addressed timeously and adequately, could trigger unrest and violence during the pre-election, election, and post-election periods.
The report notes that in Africa, elections are increasingly becoming stress tests for state legitimacy, particularly where citizens, and especially young people, feel alienated from the political class.
Recent elections in the region have resulted in violence, with reported killings in Tanzania and opposition crackdowns in Uganda.
The warning by Pan African Agenda comes against the backdrop of the 2024 Gen Z protests, when thousands of young Kenyans mobilised online and on the streets against the Finance Bill and corruption.
The youths also protested against what they termed a political class detached from everyday realities and displays of luxurious living and wastage. At least 61 people were killed during the Gen Z demonstrations, according to Amnesty International.
Using data on rising conflict fatalities, displacement, and economic losses across Africa, the report concludes that the gap between the AU’s ambitious legal mandates and its real-world preventive performance has widened significantly.
Kenya appears in this analysis not as a crisis state, but as a bellwether—a politically influential country where legitimacy strains, if left unaddressed, could produce instability through elections.
Concerns on Kenya are underscored by significant unrest over elections in neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda.
In Tanzania, the October 2025 general election was widely criticised domestically and internationally for failing to meet democratic standards.
Observers and rights groups reported ballot irregularities, internet blackouts, the barring of key opposition figures, and an aggressive clampdown on dissent.
Protests that followed the elections were met with lethal force by security services.
Reports from human rights organisations documented hundreds of deaths and serious injuries as police fired live ammunition and teargas to disperse demonstrators, many of them young and unarmed.
Though exact casualty figures remain disputed, opposition claims and eyewitness accounts underscored the scale of the violence and the deepening political crisis.
The unrest also spilled over into cross-border trade towns such as Namanga.
In Uganda, the lead-up to the 2026 presidential election was also marred by intimidation, crowd control violence, and injuries, with police using live rounds against opposition supporters at campaign events.
Opposition figure Bobi Wine described the campaign period as resembling “a war zone,” and the electoral environment was widely seen as raising serious questions about the conduct of the vote.
The developments paint a picture of rising electoral volatility across East Africa, with common features such as diminished civic space, heavy-handed security responses, and limited channels for institutional redress reflecting in both cases.
The concern is that if the underlying gap between citizens and the political class continues to widen, elections can become flashpoints for confrontation, protest, and instability.
This pattern is emerging across Africa as youthful populations lose faith in traditional political processes while coups intensify in West Africa.
At the same time, the report says the AU and many of the regional economic communities are increasingly relegated to secondary status in conflict resolution, despite their principal mandate as the main Pan-African organizations for preventive diplomacy and mediation.
“The increase in devastating wars, displacement, and atrocities in Africa, along with the roles played by external actors, has cast doubt on and eroded the primacy and effectiveness of APSA in conflict prevention and resolution,” it says.
In recent years, the review says, the AU has been relegated to little more than a public relations role in mediation efforts in Ethiopia, Sudan, the DRC–Rwanda disputes, the Ethiopia–Somalia tensions, and the ongoing war of words between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
First published in The Star
