On 21 February 2026, the Pan-African Agenda Institute (PAAI) officially launched the Pretoria Agreement Implementation Report (PAIR) under the title “Three Years into the Pretoria Agreement: Where Does It Stand?” The virtual event brought together senior policymakers, diplomats, academics, civil society leaders, private sector representatives, and members of the media for a timely and urgent conversation on the future of peace in Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.
The report comes at a critical moment. Renewed clashes in western Tigray, reports of civilian casualties from drone strikes, rising diplomatic tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and warnings from the United Nations have heightened fears that the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement could unravel. Against this backdrop, PAIR offers a comprehensive assessment of the state of implementation three years after the signing of the agreement that formally ended one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.
The Tigray War (2020–2022), fought between Ethiopia and Eritrea, claimed an estimated 600,000 lives through combat, siege, starvation, and the collapse of essential services. While the Pretoria Agreement succeeded in halting large-scale fighting, PAIR concludes that the broader promise of a sustainable transition to peace has yet to be realised.
The 78-page report finds that implementation has stalled across nearly all key provisions. Although active hostilities largely ceased following the agreement, significant areas of Tigray remain under the control of Eritrean and Amhara forces in violation of the accord. Nearly one million people remain displaced, and approximately 80 percent of Tigray’s population continues to rely on emergency humanitarian assistance. Reconstruction efforts have barely begun, despite estimated war damages exceeding USD 145 billion. Public trust in justice and accountability mechanisms remains strikingly low.
At the same time, the report underscores a crucial lesson: determined diplomatic engagement can stop even the most catastrophic wars. The Pretoria Agreement demonstrated the power of sustained international mediation and leverage. However, without renewed commitment, preventive diplomacy, and credible enforcement mechanisms, the gains achieved in 2022 risk being reversed.
PAIR calls for immediate high-level diplomatic engagement, particularly by actors with influence—to prevent renewed hostilities. It recommends revitalising the Agreement’s governance structures to reflect current realities, establishing a “Friends of the Pretoria Agreement” coalition comprising the United States, United Nations, European Union, African Union, and IGAD, and strengthening the role of local peace constituencies, especially youth, women, and marginalised communities.
The launch event served as both a reflection and a call to action. Participants emphasised that peace in Tigray and across Ethiopia remains fragile, and that the window to prevent a relapse into conflict is narrowing. As geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa grow increasingly complex, the international community faces a decisive moment.
Three years after Pretoria, the central question remains urgent: will the Agreement become a foundation for lasting peace, or a cautionary tale of unfulfilled promise?